To put something aside for potentially difficult times ahead is not a new idea. It’s something most of us do to varying degrees.
For personal finance, Financial Advisors recommend that its good practice to have an emergency fund of readily available cash to help deal with unforeseen events - a new boiler, new tyres for the car etc. An ‘ideal’ emergency pot might be about 3 months salary - enough to keep you going for a while if the worst happens. For the most organised amongst us, the emergency fund would be in addition to other longer term savings plans.
So what about the event looming on the horizon for those of us living in the UK which is not too far away - a possible no deal Brexit on 31 October? I read recently that some observers are now saying the likelihood of a no deal Brexit is greater than 1 in 3. The direction of travel seems to be changing from ‘no deal’ being a ‘possible’ outcome to a ‘probable’ outcome. The turbulence with the exchange rate and the stock market in recent days suggests the markets believe there is a strong possibility of rocky times ahead.
So what can small businesses do to prepare? There are specific, technical planning measures that businesses who import and export will need to take. For businesses that employ EU citizens working in the UK there may be changes they need to make to ensure they are compliant. There will be some changes to VAT rules, especially for exporters. These are all things that need to be looked into carefully and plans made.
But what of more general plans? Is ‘Keep calm and carry on’ enough?
I think, probably not. I think the key thing for all businesses is to be prepared for some kind of downturn. If it’s not as bad as Boris’s, ‘Doomsters and gloomsters’ predict, that’s great. All that’s been lost is a bit of time planning and preparing.
Modelling different scenarios is worthwhile. If your sales fell by 5% or 10% for 6 months what would you do? Do you have enough reserves in the business to carry you over a hump or do you need some extra funding? Increasing your overdraft limit now, before you need it is better than asking when business finance becomes more critical. Can you cut back on some of your major costs quickly if you need to? Can you reduce your drawings from the business to steady the ship?
None of us know for certain what will happen in the next 90 days or so. A bit of advance planning will ensure we are at least prepared. So think about getting your whiteboard out next week and looking at your numbers.
